Mon, 11/09/2020 – 08:49
Also earnings season is winding down now, with 438 of the S&P 500 companies having now reported. We will only see a further 16 S&P 500 companies report this week, along with a further 65 from the STOXX 600. In terms of the highlights, today we’ll hear from McDonald’s, before tomorrow sees reports from Adidas and Deutsche Post. Then on Wednesday we’ll hear from Air Products and Continental, before Thursday sees reports from Walt Disney, Cisco Systems, Siemens, Deutsche Telekom, Merck, Applied Materials, Tencent and Nissan Motor.
Finally, looking at central banks, though the main central bank decisions are now out of the way, there’ll be a number of speakers over the week ahead, particularly given an ECB forum on central banking this week. The expected highlight will be a policy panel on Thursday featuring ECB President Lagarde, Federal Reserve Chair Powell and Bank of England Governor Bailey, so that’ll definitely be one to keep an eye on, not least given the potential for further stimulus as coronavirus cases continue to rise on both sides of the Atlantic, today’s Pfizer news notwithstanding.
In short, while this week is supposed to be quiet, we certainly doubt that will be the case.
Day-by-day calendar of events courtesy of Deutsche Bank:
Monday November 9
- Data: Japan preliminary September leading index, September current account balance (23:50 UK time) Germany September trade balance
- Central Banks: ECB’s Rehn and Mersch, Fed’s Mester speak
- Earnings: McDonald’s
Tuesday November 10
- Data: China October CPI, PPI, UK September employment, unemployment, France September industrial production, Italy September industrial production, Germany November ZEW survey, US October NFIB small business optimism index, September JOLTS job openings, Japan October M2 and M3 money stock (23:50 UK time)
- Central Banks: ECB’s Knot, Fed’s Quarles, Rosengren and Kaplan speak
- Earnings: Adidas, Deutsche Post
Wednesday November 11
- Data: Japan October preliminary machine tool orders, October PPI (23:50 UK time), September core machine orders (23:50 UK time), US weekly MBA mortgage applications
- Central Banks: ECB President Lagarde speaks
- Earnings: Air Products, Continental
Thursday November 12
- Data: Japan September tertiary industry index, Germany final October CPI, UK preliminary Q3 GDP, Euro Area September industrial production, US October CPI, weekly initial jobless claims, October monthly budget statement
- Central Banks: ECB publishes Economic Bulletin, ECB President Lagarde, Fed Chair Powell, Fed’s Evans and BoE Governor Bailey speak, Bank of Mexico monetary policy decision
- Earnings: Walt Disney, Cisco Systems, Siemens, Deutsche Telekom, Merck, Applied Materials, Tencent, Nissan Motor
Friday November 13
- Data: France final October CPI, Euro Area preliminary Q3 GDP, US October PPI, preliminary November University of Michigan consumer sentiment index
- Central Banks: ECB’s Rehn, Weidmann and Fed’s Bullard speak
* * *
Finally, looking at just the US, the key economic data releases this week are the CPI and jobless claims reports on Thursday. There are numerous speaking engagements from Fed officials this week, including Chair Powell on Thursday.
Monday, November 9
- 01:30 PM Cleveland Fed President Mester (FOMC voter) speaks: Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester will speak at a virtual financial technology conference hosted by the Philadelphia Fed. Prepared text, audience Q&A, and media Q&A are expected.
- 05:00 PM Dallas Fed President Kaplan (FOMC voter) speaks: Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan will participate in the Shreveport-Bossier City Economic Update webinar.
Tuesday, November 10
- 06:00 AM NFIB small business optimism, October (consensus 104.4, last 104.0)
- 07:30 AM Dallas Fed President Kaplan (FOMC voter) speaks: Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan will participate in a virtual event hosted by Bloomberg.
- 10:00 AM JOLTS job openings, September (consensus 6,500k, last 6,493k)
- 10:00 AM Boston Fed President Rosengren (FOMC non-voter): Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren will speak on financial stability and economic downturns at a virtual event hosted by UBS. Prepared text and audience Q&A are expected.
- 10:00 AM Dallas Fed President Kaplan (FOMC voter) speaks: Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan will speak at a University of Texas at Dallas economic summit.
- 12:00 PM Dallas Fed President Kaplan (FOMC voter) speaks: Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan will speak at the Council on Foreign Relations.
- 02:00 PM Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Quarles (FOMC voter) speaks: Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Randal Quarles will discuss oversight of the Securities and Exchange Commission before the Senate Banking Committee. Prepared text is expected.
- 04:00 PM Boston Fed President Rosengren (FOMC non-voter): Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren will repeat remarks from his earlier 10am event at a virtual conference hosted by the Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government. Prepared text and audience Q&A are expected.
- 05:00 PM Fed Governor Brainard (FOMC voter) speaks: Fed Governor Lael Brainard will discuss the Community Reinvestment Act at the National Congress of American Indians annual convention. Prepared text and panelist Q&A are expected.
Wednesday, November 11
- There are no major economic data releases scheduled.
Thursday, November 12
- 08:30 AM CPI (mom), October (GS +0.09%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.2%); Core CPI (mom), October (GS +0.13%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.2%); CPI (yoy), October (GS +1.21%, consensus +1.3%, last +1.4%); Core CPI (yoy), October (GS +1.73%, consensus +1.7%, last +1.7%): We estimate a 0.13% increase in October core CPI (mom sa), which would leave the year-on-year rate unchanged at 1.7% on a rounded basis. Our monthly core inflation forecast reflects a sharp deceleration in used car prices and another decline in the health and car insurance components. We also forecast lackluster shelter inflation (+0.12% mom sa for rent and 0.10% for OER), reflecting continued rent freezes and a drag from rent forgiveness in some areas. On the positive side, we estimate a return to positive education inflation—as the fall semester tuition cuts are now reflected in the index, in our view. We also note scope for increases in apparel prices from depressed levels. We estimate a 0.09% increase in headline CPI (mom sa), due to lower energy prices.
- 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended November 7 (GS 720k, consensus 730k, last 751k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended October 31 (consensus 6,750k, last 7,285k); We estimate initial jobless claims decreased to 720k in the week ended November 7.
- 11:45 AM Fed Chair Powell (FOMC voter) speaks; Fed Chair Jerome Powell will participate in a forum hosted by the European Central Bank.
- 01:00 PM Chicago Fed President Evans (FOMC non-voter) speaks; Chicago Fed President Charles Evans will speak at a Detroit community forum. Audience Q&A is expected.
Friday, November 13
- 07:00 AM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President John Williams will participate in an online interview hosted by the Financial Times.
- 08:30 AM PPI final demand, October (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.4%); PPI ex-food and energy, October (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.4%); PPI ex-food, energy, and trade, October (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.4%): We estimate that headline PPI increased 0.2% in October, reflecting stronger food prices and soft energy prices. We expect a 0.2% increase in both the core measure excluding food and energy and the core measure excluding food, energy, and trade.
- 08:30 AM St. Louis Fed President Bullard (FOMC non-voter) speaks: St. Louis Fed President James Bullard will discuss the economy and monetary policy in a webinar hosted by the Economic Club of Memphis. Prepared text is expected.
- 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, November preliminary (GS 82.5, consensus 81.8, last 81.8): We expect the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index increased by 0.7pt to 82.5 in the preliminary November reading, reflecting resolution of the election and an improving economy, but a drag from growing virus spread.
Source: Deutsche Bank, Goldman, BofA
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Author: Tyler Durden