Sat, 10/24/2020 – 08:10
It is the the massive debt. It cannot be serviced. It will collapse the whole system.
The gold, silver and cryptocurrencies charts are showing signs of going parabolic. The US dollar is close to confirming a massive breakdown.
Gold, silver and cryptocurrencies all provide “crisis value” by simply being an acceptable debt-based-fiat alternative. It is only later in this crisis that we will see a divergence between cryptocurrency and precious metals.
For now, they are likely to move higher together.
Gold has recently made new all-time highs, and seems ready to go higher after a decent consolidation. The importance of the 2011 all-time high can be seen on these charts:
I have marked two fractals (ABC). Both fractals start from the Dow/Gold ratio peaks (1966 and 1999). For these to continue the similarity, the level ($1920) at A and C needs to be surpassed on the current fractal.
We’ve already seen the breakout, now price has just been consolidating around that level. It is very close to blasting higher.
From a cycle analysis point of view, we are right at a point where a sustained multi-year gold rally is possible:
The top chart is gold from about 1997 to 2020 (current fractal), and the bottom chart is gold from about 1965 to 1980 (70s fractals). If the current fractal continues to follow the 70s fractal, then we could see gold continue to multiples of its current all-time high.
Currently, we are just after, or close to, a major Dow peak in the economic cycle. Again, you can see that the 2011 peak is an important indicator to confirm these fractals as relevant. It could also be considered a marker after which the chart is likely to go parabolic.
Bitcoin has been quiet, but could be ready to move higher at a frightening pace. Here is an updated chart that I shared on my blog previously:
The setup for Bitcoin is very similar to the end of 2013, based on these fractals. Price has completed a successful breakout at the wedge, and the retrace is also done.
We are likely in a move towards the $100 000 level at least.
The outlook for silver is really the same: continue on its parabolic path.
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Author: Tyler Durden