Just Three Charts

Everything’s awesome, right? There’s just one thing (well two…)

Everything really is awesome according to the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNOW model is forecasting a 4.95% GDP growth in Q3…

Except, despite the hopeful forecasts for US economic growth, the housing segment is collapsing…

As Gluskin Sheff’s David Rosenberg notes:

“The Fed could get away with using the term “strong” three times in the opening paragraph and five times throughout because it conveniently missed discussing the housing market!”

Oh, and the fact that Consumer Confidence measures are flashing a very loud “late-cycle” warning…

And, once again, Rosenberg notes:

“The gap that has opened up between consumer confidence for the present and future is so classically late-cycle. As in, no more pent-up demand. Consider this a near-2 SD event. Take out the umbrella!”

As Rosie concludes: ” the average lag time is 8 months, and the median is 6, with respect to that chart of the present/future delta from the consumer confidence report. Nowhere near what some of you were thinking. The cycle’s on a short leash (lease?).

* * *

So, apart from the housing market collapse and the vast un-reality gap between now and the future, everything is really awesome.

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Author: Tyler Durden